Calculation of multiple, influencing variables

Determination of cost, time prices etc. using the calculation method of multiple, influencing variables.

Today, statistical analysis is a fundamental principle in problem solving. In practice, easy to understand and to handle graphical approximate solutions are used, since the determination of statistical relevant key figures and mathematical equations demand a high expenditure of time.

Our solution for the calculation of these key figures is a user-friendly tool, which offers the easy handling of complex connections, while also considering statistical and mathematical sound methods.

IPS Expert offers you the tool to efficiently process and solve complex statistical-mathematical problems without in-depth knowledge of higher mathematics.

Our solution uses sophisticated statistical and mathematical methods which is preparated to be easily used and understood by the user, therefore giving the user a lucid instrument to make the right choices and decisions.

Display of the result of a linear frequency analysis. The example given refers to the examination of fettling time in a foundry.

Calculation dialogue. The target quantity is calculated by using data loaded in the background.

#### The principle

Every event is the result of influencing variables

Deriving impacts from causes and vice versa is the working hypothesis on which the Delphi principle is based upon.

Constant and variable influencing variables

This principle assumes, that each and every event (e.g. the business operating result, the currency exchange rate or the production time of some article) is the result of influencing variables and their dependency on each other. Depending on the type of the influence of a variable, the division between constant and variable influencing variables must be made.

The influence of constant influencing variables can more or less be described by mathematical formulas.

The influence of variable influencing variables can, on the other hand, only be described by its concrete characteristic, while the influence itself is a result of mathematical formulas or probabilities. The influence of multiple factors on each other has to be considered here as well.

#### The Delphi principle

The Delphi principle is looking to:

-determine the future development of a target value through concrete observation/experiences and through the result of these observations and to make a prediction on how these observation results might effect the target value as well as the observation itself.

or

-determine significantly influencing variables for a target value through knowing the make-up of that target value.

Both principles aim to predict future events with a relatively small corridor for errors using the calculation method of multiple, influencing variables.
Experiences gleaned are hereby used to further improve the result of the calculation itself.

#### Future is a result of its past

The future is a result of the past. A result of its rational or irrational interpretation and the will to influence it. Sophisticated observation of the past and the knowledge to know which you could not observe, is what makes the future more understandable and maybe a bit predictable.

The ancient Greeks already used that circumstance to come up with godly prophecies by making daily observations.

Through the undogmatic, individual deciphering and interpretation of symbolic signs, likes the ones which the oracle of Delphi gave its worshippers as response, everyone gained a way to influence one’s future by himself.

This principle stands true till today – just the number of factors and influencing variables to recognize, interpret and evaluate have significantly increased.

IPS Expert developed a software solution which incorporates these factors using statistical methods and procedures to quickly and reliably find profound results. Based on this precise data material, it becomes increasingly easier to make the right business decisions and therefore aid in the successful development of your business.

Just as it was with the oracle of Delphi, the trick to it is to interpret these “signs” yourself.

#### Applications

The calculation method of multiple, influencing variables is used, when target values have to be determined dealing with complex correlations to each other or depending on influencing variables.

Examples hereof are:

-Determination of target work duration
-Determination of production costs
-Price comparison analysis with competitors
-Analysis of purchase prices
-Determination of the cost of auxiliary materials for the costing calculation
-Determination of surcharge based on expected scrap rate
-Calculation of percentage of return material
-Determination of extra work risk

Further areas of applications of applicable due the felxible nature of the program design.

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